Sutton Utd 0–2 Notts County: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Notts County

J. Hughes 90+1', 35'

12/4/2011

League #45 · 2nd RoundThe Borough Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sutton Utd34%

×Draw29%

Notts County37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchNotts County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.17

Sutton Utd

1.10

Notts County

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.00

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Sutton Utd

0.00

Notts County

1.00

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.33

Notts County

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Notts County →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

63%

Sutton Utd or Notts County

71%

Draw or Notts County

66%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

14%

Notts County wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

67%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

30%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

10%

Notts County 1+ goals

69%

Notts County 2+ goals

33%

Notts County 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

48%

Notts County (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 0.00 + Notts County defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Notts County attack 1.00 + Sutton Utd defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

34%

level

29%

Notts County scores more

37%

Notts County at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

J. Hughes

45+1'

K. Murray← K. El Salahi

59'

M. Edwards← S. Sodje

59'

I. Demontagnac← B. Burgess

72'

T. Taggart← C. Dundas

82'

F. Orilonishe← P. Telfer

90+2'

H. Bencherif← K. Hawley

90+1'

J. Hughes

Sutton

Notts

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

45+1'▲K. Murray←▼K. El Salahi

72'▲T. Taggart←▼C. Dundas

82'▲F. Orilonishe←▼P. Telfer

Sutton Utd substitutes

MurrayTaggartOrilonisheShawKavanaghMcCraeWoods-Garness

59'▲M. Edwards←▼S. Sodje

59'▲I. Demontagnac←▼B. Burgess

90+2'▲H. Bencherif←▼K. Hawley

Notts County substitutes

EdwardsDemontagnacBencherifMitchellStirlingAllenHollis

Match Recap: Sutton Utd vs Notts County

Notts County beat Sutton Utd 2-0 in League #45 on December 4, 2011.

Goals: J. Hughes (35', 90+1').

The match was played at The Borough Sports Ground.

Sutton Utd vs Notts County — League #45 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sutton Utd vs Notts County