Sutton Utd 2–3 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Morecambe

10/21/2023

League Two · Round 14VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd48%

×Draw25%

Morecambe26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.10

Sutton Utd

1.58

Morecambe

1.10

Sutton Utd creates 44% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 112 away

1.41

creates per match

1.10

1.09

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.41

Morecambe

1.10

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.09

Morecambe

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

74%

Sutton Utd or Morecambe

75%

Draw or Morecambe

52%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

25%

Morecambe wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

79%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

47%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

21%

Morecambe 1+ goals

67%

Morecambe 2+ goals

30%

Morecambe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

65%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Morecambe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.58

Morecambe attack 1.10 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

48%

level

25%

Morecambe scores more

26%

Sutton Utd at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff