Morecambe 1–0 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Morecambe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sutton Utd

2/10/2024

League Two · Round 32Mazuma Mobile Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Morecambe44%

×Draw25%

Sutton Utd31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MorecambeExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.22

Morecambe

1.52

Sutton Utd

1.22

Morecambe creates 25% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 69 away

1.31

creates per match

1.12

1.32

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Morecambe

1.31

Sutton Utd

1.12

allows per match

Morecambe

1.32

Sutton Utd

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw

69%

Morecambe or Sutton Utd

75%

Draw or Sutton Utd

56%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+

22%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals

78%

Morecambe 2+ goals

45%

Morecambe 3+ goals

20%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

70%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

34%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)

59%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.31 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Morecambe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Morecambe scores more

44%

level

25%

Sutton Utd scores more

31%

Morecambe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff