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Sutton Utd vs Milton Keynes Dons — League Two 2018

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
9/23/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 9VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd41%
×Draw25%
Milton Keynes Dons34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.48
Milton Keynes Dons
1.31

Sutton Utd creates 13% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 93 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.54

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.09
Milton Keynes Dons
1.56

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
66%
Sutton Utd or Milton Keynes Dons
75%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
59%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
20%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
77%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
43%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
19%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
73%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
38%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
55%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.54 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
41%
level
25%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
34%

Sutton Utd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Sutton Utd 1–1 Milton Keynes Dons

Sutton Utd and Milton Keynes Dons drew 1-1 in League Two on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at VBS Community Stadium in Sutton, Surrey.