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Milton Keynes Dons vs Sutton Utd — League Two 2018

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
4 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
E. Harrison 70'
E. Tezgel 60'
A. Gilbey 41'
J. Payne 14'
H. Smith 90+1'
S. Duke-McKenna 75', 50'
C. Lakin 62'
4/27/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 46Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons52%
×Draw24%
Sutton Utd24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.68
Sutton Utd
1.05

Milton Keynes Dons creates 60% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 69 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.61
Sutton Utd
1.12

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
0.98
Sutton Utd
1.74

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
76%
Milton Keynes Dons or Sutton Utd
76%
Draw or Sutton Utd
48%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
28%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
81%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
50%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
24%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
65%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
28%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
69%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.98 · 93 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.61 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.68

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
52%
level
24%
Sutton Utd scores more
24%

Milton Keynes Dons at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
C. LakinSutton UtdSutton Utd · M
8.9

Match Events

14'
J. Payne↳ M. Dean
31'
S. Duke-McKenna← J. Coley
41'
A. Gilbey↳ M. Dean
46'
C. Eastmond← O. Sanderson
50'
S. Duke-McKenna↳ C. Lakin
56'
E. Harrison← M. Dean
56'
E. Tezgel← S. Wearne
60'
E. Tezgel
62'
C. Norman← J. Tomlinson
62'
E. Robson← A. Gilbey
62'
C. Lakin↳ H. Smith
65'
Craig Eastmond
67'
Warren O'Hora
67'
Sam Hart
70'
E. Harrison↳ E. Tezgel
74'
D. Kemp← K. Lofthouse
74'
D. Moore← R. Jackson
74'
T. Fadahunsi← H. Beautyman
75'
S. Duke-McKenna↳ T. Fadahunsi
90+6'
Ellis Harrison
90+1'
H. Smith↳ S. Duke-McKenna

Possession

63%Milton

Shots

18Milton

Pass accuracy

54%Milton

Statistics

MiltonSutton
Overview
63%Possession37%
18Total Shots17
3Corners9
10Fouls13
Shots
18Total Shots17
8On Target12
4Off Target3
6Blocked2
13Inside Box14
5Outside Box3
Passing
63%Possession37%
547Total Passes301
448Accurate Passes208
82%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
8Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Milton Keynes Dons vs Sutton Utd

Milton Keynes Dons and Sutton Utd drew 4-4 in League Two on April 27, 2024.

Goals: J. Payne (14'), A. Gilbey (41'), S. Duke-McKenna (50', 75'), E. Tezgel (60'), C. Lakin (62'), E. Harrison (70'), H. Smith (90+1').

Milton Keynes Dons controlled possession (63%) and registered 18 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadium mk in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.