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Sutton Utd vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gillingham
Gillingham
8/15/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 3VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd47%
×Draw27%
Gillingham26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.39
Gillingham
0.97

Sutton Utd creates 43% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 92 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.41
Gillingham
0.84

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.09
Gillingham
1.36

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
74%
Sutton Utd or Gillingham
73%
Draw or Gillingham
53%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
22%
Gillingham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
75%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
40%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
16%
Gillingham 1+ goals
62%
Gillingham 2+ goals
25%
Gillingham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
64%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Gillingham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Gillingham attack 0.84 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
47%
level
27%
Gillingham scores more
26%

Sutton Utd at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Sutton Utd 0–1 Gillingham

Gillingham beat Sutton Utd 1-0 in League Two on August 15, 2023.

The match was played at VBS Community Stadium in Sutton, Surrey.