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Gillingham vs Sutton Utd — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
10/1/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 12MEMS Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Gillingham44%
×Draw27%
Sutton Utd29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.41
Sutton Utd
1.10

Gillingham creates 28% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 69 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.08
Sutton Utd
1.12

allows per match

Gillingham
1.08
Sutton Utd
1.74

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
71%
Gillingham or Sutton Utd
73%
Draw or Sutton Utd
56%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
21%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
76%
Gillingham 2+ goals
41%
Gillingham 3+ goals
17%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
67%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
30%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
60%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.08 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Gillingham defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gillingham scores more
44%
level
27%
Sutton Utd scores more
29%

Gillingham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gillingham vs Sutton Utd

Gillingham beat Sutton Utd 1-0 in League Two on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at MEMS Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham, Kent.