Sutton Utd 1–1 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Doncaster

C. Eastmond 73'

J. Ironside 90+6' (pen)

2/3/2024

League Two · Round 31VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd41%

×Draw26%

Doncaster33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.23

Sutton Utd

1.42

Doncaster

1.23

Sutton Utd creates 15% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 73 away

1.41

creates per match

1.38

1.09

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.41

Doncaster

1.38

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.09

Doncaster

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

67%

Sutton Utd or Doncaster

74%

Draw or Doncaster

59%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

20%

Doncaster wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

76%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

41%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

17%

Doncaster 1+ goals

71%

Doncaster 2+ goals

35%

Doncaster 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

56%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Doncaster attack 1.38 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

41%

level

26%

Doncaster scores more

33%

Sutton Utd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Ironside

Doncaster · F

7.9

Match Events

1'

Billy Waters

36'

Richard Wood

39'

Joe Kizzi

46'

J. Maxwell← J. McGrath

59'

G. Broadbent← H. Adelakun

60'

H. Smith← L. Angol

60'

O. Patrick← O. Sanderson

65'

George Broadbent

73'

C. Eastmond

74'

H. Beautyman← N. Adom-Malaki

74'

L. Molyneux← B. Waters

75'

J. Taylor← J. Sterry

82'

K. Hurst← T. Rowe

90+5'

Harry Beautyman

90+6'

J. IronsidePenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SuttonDoncaster

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots9

1Corners4

13Fouls21

Shots

14Total Shots9

5On Target1

5Off Target4

4Blocked4

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

277Total Passes259

177Accurate Passes143

64%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls21

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides3