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Doncaster vs Sutton Utd — League Two 2018

Doncaster
Doncaster
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
10/14/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 13Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Doncaster48%
×Draw25%
Sutton Utd27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.60
Sutton Utd
1.15

Doncaster creates 39% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 69 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.47
Sutton Utd
1.12

allows per match

Doncaster
1.18
Sutton Utd
1.74

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
73%
Doncaster or Sutton Utd
75%
Draw or Sutton Utd
52%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
25%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
80%
Doncaster 2+ goals
47%
Doncaster 3+ goals
22%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
68%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
32%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
64%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.47 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Doncaster defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Doncaster scores more
48%
level
25%
Sutton Utd scores more
27%

Doncaster at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Doncaster vs Sutton Utd

Doncaster beat Sutton Utd 4-1 in League Two on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Eco-Power Stadium in Doncaster, South Yorkshire.