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Sutton Utd vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Crewe
Crewe
3/4/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 35VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd43%
×Draw27%
Crewe30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.36
Crewe
1.08

Sutton Utd creates 26% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 134 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.41
Crewe
1.07

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.09
Crewe
1.32

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
70%
Sutton Utd or Crewe
73%
Draw or Crewe
57%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
20%
Crewe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
74%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
39%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
16%
Crewe 1+ goals
66%
Crewe 2+ goals
29%
Crewe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
59%
Crewe (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Crewe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Crewe attack 1.07 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
43%
level
27%
Crewe scores more
30%

Sutton Utd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sutton Utd vs Crewe

Sutton Utd and Crewe drew 1-1 in League Two on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at VBS Community Stadium in Sutton, Surrey.