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Crewe vs Sutton Utd — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
8/16/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Crewe49%
×Draw24%
Sutton Utd27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.67
Sutton Utd
1.16

Crewe creates 44% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 69 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.59
Sutton Utd
1.12

allows per match

Crewe
1.19
Sutton Utd
1.74

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
73%
Crewe or Sutton Utd
76%
Draw or Sutton Utd
51%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
26%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
81%
Crewe 2+ goals
50%
Crewe 3+ goals
23%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
69%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
32%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
65%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.59 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Crewe defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Crewe scores more
49%
level
24%
Sutton Utd scores more
27%

Crewe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crewe vs Sutton Utd

Crewe beat Sutton Utd 1-0 in League Two on August 16, 2022.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.