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Sutjeska vs Dečić — First League 2025

Sutjeska
Sutjeska
Preview
17:00
Dečić
Dečić
9/13/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Stadion Gradski
Big match
57%
Sutjeska
model favours
57%25%18%

Dečić score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sutjeska57%
×Draw25%
Dečić18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutjeska
1.62
Dečić
0.80

Sutjeska creates 102% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sutjeska
1.91
Dečić
0.78

allows per match

Sutjeska
0.83
Dečić
1.33

finishing

Sutjeska+0.00on par
Dečić+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska ↓

Dečić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sutjeska or draw
82%
Sutjeska or Dečić
75%
Draw or Dečić
43%

Winning margin

Sutjeska wins by 2+
31%
Dečić wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sutjeska 1+ goals
80%
Sutjeska 2+ goals
48%
Sutjeska 3+ goals
22%
Dečić 1+ goals
55%
Dečić 2+ goals
19%
Dečić 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska (draw refunded)
76%
Dečić (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Dečić away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska attack 1.91 + Dečić defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.62

Dečić attack 0.78 + Sutjeska defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sutjeska scores more
57%
level
25%
Dečić scores more
18%

Sutjeska at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 23% of Sutjeska’s matches
  • 69% of Sutjeska’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 69% of Dečić’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 31% of Dečić’s matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Sutjeska 1 vs Dečić 4
  • Dečić win just 19% against the top half (vs 55% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sutjeska
LLLL
Dečić
LLWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sutjeska host Dečić

September 13, 2026: Sutjeska take on Dečić in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sutjeska host Dečić at Stadion Gradski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.