Sutjeska 3–1 Dečić: Result & Stats | First League

Sutjeska

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dečić

11/22/2025

First League · Round 16Stadion Gradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sutjeska56%

×Draw25%

Dečić20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SutjeskaExpected goals in this matchDečić

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.86

Sutjeska

1.64

Dečić

0.86

Sutjeska creates 91% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.95

creates per match

0.78

0.95

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sutjeska

1.95

Dečić

0.78

allows per match

Sutjeska

0.95

Dečić

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutjeska+0.00on par

Dečić+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska ↓

Dečić →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sutjeska or draw

80%

Sutjeska or Dečić

75%

Draw or Dečić

44%

Winning margin

Sutjeska wins by 2+

30%

Dečić wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sutjeska 1+ goals

81%

Sutjeska 2+ goals

49%

Sutjeska 3+ goals

23%

Dečić 1+ goals

58%

Dečić 2+ goals

21%

Dečić 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska (draw refunded)

74%

Dečić (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Dečić away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska attack 1.95 + Dečić defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.64

Dečić attack 0.78 + Sutjeska defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sutjeska scores more

56%

level

25%

Dečić scores more

20%

Sutjeska at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff