Dečić 1–2 Sutjeska: Result & Stats | First League

Dečić

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sutjeska

T. Selimi 18'

V. Kalezic 55'

V. Cavor 3'

3/15/2026

First League · Round 25Tusko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dečić40%

×Draw26%

Sutjeska34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DečićExpected goals in this matchSutjeska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.28

Dečić

1.39

Sutjeska

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.61

creates per match

1.39

1.17

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Dečić

1.61

Sutjeska

1.39

allows per match

Dečić

1.17

Sutjeska

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dečić+0.00on par

Sutjeska+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dečić ↓

Sutjeska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dečić or draw

66%

Dečić or Sutjeska

74%

Draw or Sutjeska

60%

Winning margin

Dečić wins by 2+

18%

Sutjeska wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dečić 1+ goals

75%

Dečić 2+ goals

40%

Dečić 3+ goals

16%

Sutjeska 1+ goals

72%

Sutjeska 2+ goals

37%

Sutjeska 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dečić (draw refunded)

53%

Sutjeska (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dečić at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

Sutjeska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dečić attack 1.61 + Sutjeska defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sutjeska attack 1.39 + Dečić defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dečić scores more

40%

level

26%

Sutjeska scores more

34%

Dečić at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dečić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

V. Cavor

18'

T. Selimi

46'

I. Vukcevic← M. Mrvaljevic

55'

58'

60'

65'

67'

67'

B. Radusinovic← M. Djokaj

72'

P. Sekulovic← T. Selimi

72'

D. Perovic← A. Bajovic

75'

M. Jukovic

88'

B. Damjanovic← M. Jukovic

89'

V. Strikovic

90+4'

A. Golubovic← V. Cavor

90+1'

B. Toskovic← V. Kalezic

Dečić

Sutjeska

1

4

15

19

20

22

24

⚽

▼

Cavor

70

⚽

▼

Kalezic

72

Babic

88

▼

Jukovic

99

▼

33

22

17

23

18

19

⚽

▼

Selimi

10

Kajevic

14

▼

Bajovic

77

Strikovic

11

▼

Djokaj

9

▼

Camaj

Manager: Nenad Brnovic

67'▲D. Bozovic←▼I. Camaj

67'▲B. Radusinovic←▼M. Djokaj

72'▲P. Sekulovic←▼T. Selimi

72'▲D. Perovic←▼A. Bajovic

Dečić substitutes

25Radosevic7Bozovic15Ljuljdjuraj16Bozanovic20Sekulovic29Braunovic32Radusinovic44Perovic

Manager: Milija Savovic

46'▲I. Vukcevic←▼M. Mrvaljevic

88'▲B. Damjanovic←▼M. Jukovic

90+4'▲A. Golubovic←▼V. Cavor

90+1'▲B. Toskovic←▼V. Kalezic

Sutjeska substitutes

31Vukcevic2Golubovic5Pajovic7Vukcevic10Toskovic16Djinovic25Djukanovic30Kecojevic91Damjanovic

First League: Dečić 1–2 Sutjeska

Sutjeska beat Dečić 2-1 in First League on March 15, 2026.

Goals: V. Cavor (3'), T. Selimi (18'), V. Kalezic (55').

The match was played at Tusko in Tuzi.

Dečić vs Sutjeska — First League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Dečić 1–2 Sutjeska