Sutjeska 5–2 Bokelj: Result & Stats | First League

Sutjeska

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Bokelj

V. Kalezic 90'

M. Simun 58', 40' (pen)

P. Anicic 42'

N. Furtula 15' (pen)

V. Janketic 69', 57'

8/30/2025

First League · Round 5Stadion Gradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sutjeska54%

×Draw26%

Bokelj20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SutjeskaExpected goals in this matchBokelj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.81

Sutjeska

1.51

Bokelj

0.81

Sutjeska creates 86% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

1.91

creates per match

0.79

0.83

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Sutjeska

1.91

Bokelj

0.79

allows per match

Sutjeska

0.83

Bokelj

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutjeska+0.00on par

Bokelj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska ↓

Bokelj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sutjeska or draw

80%

Sutjeska or Bokelj

74%

Draw or Bokelj

46%

Winning margin

Sutjeska wins by 2+

28%

Bokelj wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sutjeska 1+ goals

78%

Sutjeska 2+ goals

44%

Sutjeska 3+ goals

19%

Bokelj 1+ goals

56%

Bokelj 2+ goals

19%

Bokelj 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska (draw refunded)

73%

Bokelj (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Bokelj away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska attack 1.91 + Bokelj defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.51

Bokelj attack 0.79 + Sutjeska defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sutjeska scores more

54%

level

26%

Bokelj scores more

20%

Sutjeska at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Z. Vilotijevic

15'

N. FurtulaPenalty

40'

M. SimunPenalty

42'

46'

50'

57'

58'

62'

T. Miljanic← P. Anicic

62'

D. Cetkovic← A. Raznatovic

62'

V. Kalezic← M. Jukovic

68'

A. Desancic← I. Vukcevic

68'

B. Toskovic← A. Scekic

68'

Z. Mugosa← F. Mukovic

68'

S. Golubovic← S. Kordic

69'

V. Janketic

76'

B. Kopitovic

78'

S. Kokkinis← S. Mrsulja

89'

B. Radevic← V. Janketic

90'

V. Kalezic

Sutjeska

Bokelj

1

Krijestar

7

⚽2

▼

Janketic

8

▼

Mukovic

9

▼

Kordic

10

Pocek

11

▼

Maras

14

Radunovic

17

▼

22

29

80

1

5

6

7

▼

Vukcevic

9

⚽

▼

Anicic

15

Kopitovic

19

⚽2

Simun

22

▼

Raznatovi

88

▼

Jukovic

89

⚽

Furtula

55

▼

Scekic

Manager: Milija Savovic

62'▲T. Miljanic←▼P. Anicic

62'▲D. Cetkovic←▼A. Raznatovic

62'▲V. Kalezic←▼M. Jukovic

68'▲A. Desancic←▼I. Vukcevic

68'▲B. Toskovic←▼A. Scekic

Sutjeska substitutes

2Golubovic3Desancic10Toskovic17Miljanic21Cetkovic24Cavor70Kalezic23Dubljevic16Djinovic

Manager: Slobodan Draskovic

46'▲B. Musah←▼L. Maras

68'▲Z. Mugosa←▼F. Mukovic

68'▲S. Golubovic←▼S. Kordic

78'▲S. Kokkinis←▼S. Mrsulja

89'▲B. Radevic←▼V. Janketic

Bokelj substitutes

88Spasojevic4Kumburovic16Mugosa19Musah21Golubovic23Krivokapic27Radevic28Kokkinis31Delic