Bokelj 2–3 Sutjeska: Result & Stats | First League

Bokelj

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Sutjeska

F. Mukovic 65'

S. Vico 35'

I. Vukcevic 88'

M. Jukovic 51'

V. Cavor 43'

5/2/2026

First League · Round 32Stadion pod Vrmcem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Bokelj29%

×Draw25%

Sutjeska46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BokeljExpected goals in this matchSutjeska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.52

Bokelj

1.15

Sutjeska

1.52

Sutjeska creates 32% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

1.25

creates per match

1.48

1.55

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Bokelj

1.25

Sutjeska

1.48

allows per match

Bokelj

1.55

Sutjeska

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bokelj+0.00on par

Sutjeska+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bokelj ↓

Sutjeska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bokelj or draw

54%

Bokelj or Sutjeska

75%

Draw or Sutjeska

71%

Winning margin

Bokelj wins by 2+

11%

Sutjeska wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Bokelj 1+ goals

68%

Bokelj 2+ goals

32%

Bokelj 3+ goals

11%

Sutjeska 1+ goals

78%

Sutjeska 2+ goals

45%

Sutjeska 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Bokelj (draw refunded)

39%

Sutjeska (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bokelj at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Sutjeska away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bokelj attack 1.25 + Sutjeska defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sutjeska attack 1.48 + Bokelj defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bokelj scores more

29%

level

25%

Sutjeska scores more

46%

Sutjeska at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

43'

44'

44'

51'

60'

65'

67'

I. Vukcevic← J. Cadjenovic

67'

A. Scekic← V. Kalezic

68'

V. Janketic← I. Pocek

75'

P. Anicic← M. Jukovic

76'

B. Nurkovic← B. Raso

88'

I. Vukcevic

90'

A. Golubovic← V. Cavor

Bokelj

Sutjeska

31

Vukcevic

4

Vracar

15

Kopitovic

20

▼

Cadjenovi

22

Raznatovi

24

⚽

▼

Cavor

44

Hocko

70

▼

Kalezic

72

Babic

88

⚽

▼

Jukovic

99

Mrvaljevi

88

Spasojevi

8

⚽

Mukovic

10

▼

Pocek

11

▼

14

16

19

22

⚽

Vico

26

Cukovic

29

Cavor

33

▼

Raso

Manager: Slobodan Draskovic

60'▲S. Kordic←▼L. Maras

68'▲V. Janketic←▼I. Pocek

76'▲B. Nurkovic←▼B. Raso

Bokelj substitutes

1Cetkovic7Janketic9Kordic17Mrsulja21Golubovic23Krivokapic31Nurkovic80Vilotijevic99Stamenkovic

Manager: Milija Savovic

67'▲I. Vukcevic←▼J. Cadjenovic

67'▲A. Scekic←▼V. Kalezic

75'▲P. Anicic←▼M. Jukovic

90'▲A. Golubovic←▼V. Cavor

Sutjeska substitutes

32Kljajic2Golubovic5Pajovic6Dedic7Vukcevic9Anicic16Djinovic55Scekic91Damjanovic