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Sutjeska Foča vs Modriča — 1st League - RS 2019

Sutjeska Foča
Sutjeska Foča
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Modriča
Modriča
9/24/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 9Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Sutjeska Foča65%
×Draw20%
Modriča14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutjeska Foča
2.06
Modriča
0.84

Sutjeska Foča creates 145% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 71 away

creates per match

Sutjeska Foča
1.78
Modriča
0.70

allows per match

Sutjeska Foča
0.98
Modriča
2.34

finishing

Sutjeska Foča+0.00on par
Modriča+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska Foča ↓

Modriča →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sutjeska Foča or draw
86%
Sutjeska Foča or Modriča
80%
Draw or Modriča
35%

Winning margin

Sutjeska Foča wins by 2+
41%
Modriča wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sutjeska Foča 1+ goals
87%
Sutjeska Foča 2+ goals
61%
Sutjeska Foča 3+ goals
34%
Modriča 1+ goals
57%
Modriča 2+ goals
21%
Modriča 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska Foča (draw refunded)
82%
Modriča (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska Foča at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 96 matches

Modriča away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska Foča attack 1.78 + Modriča defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.06

Modriča attack 0.70 + Sutjeska Foča defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sutjeska Foča scores more
65%
level
20%
Modriča scores more
14%

Sutjeska Foča at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sutjeska Foča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Sutjeska Foča 3–0 Modriča

Sutjeska Foča beat Modriča 3-0 in 1st League - RS on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Foča.