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Modriča vs Sutjeska Foča — 1st League - RS 2019

Modriča
Modriča
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sutjeska Foča
Sutjeska Foča
4/16/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 23Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Modriča57%
×Draw22%
Sutjeska Foča20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modriča
1.87
Sutjeska Foča
1.02

Modriča creates 83% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 96 away

creates per match

Modriča
1.70
Sutjeska Foča
0.93

allows per match

Modriča
1.11
Sutjeska Foča
2.04

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par
Sutjeska Foča+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

Sutjeska Foča →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Modriča or draw
80%
Modriča or Sutjeska Foča
78%
Draw or Sutjeska Foča
43%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+
33%
Sutjeska Foča wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals
85%
Modriča 2+ goals
56%
Modriča 3+ goals
29%
Sutjeska Foča 1+ goals
64%
Sutjeska Foča 2+ goals
27%
Sutjeska Foča 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)
74%
Sutjeska Foča (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Sutjeska Foča away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.04 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + Sutjeska Foča defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.87

Sutjeska Foča attack 0.93 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Modriča scores more
57%
level
22%
Sutjeska Foča scores more
20%

Modriča at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Modriča 1–2 Sutjeska Foča

Sutjeska Foča beat Modriča 2-1 in 1st League - RS on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić in Modriča.