Sutjeska Foča 1–0 Krupa na Vrbasu: Result & Stats

Sutjeska Foča

FT

1 – 0

Krupa na Vrbasu

10/30/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 12Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sutjeska Foča33%

×Draw26%

Krupa na Vrbasu41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutjeska FočaExpected goals in this matchKrupa na Vrbasu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.39

Sutjeska Foča

1.21

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.39

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 15% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 39 away

1.78

creates per match

1.79

0.98

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

Sutjeska Foča

1.78

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.79

allows per match

Sutjeska Foča

0.98

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutjeska Foča+0.00on par

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska Foča ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sutjeska Foča or draw

59%

Sutjeska Foča or Krupa na Vrbasu

74%

Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu

67%

Winning margin

Sutjeska Foča wins by 2+

14%

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sutjeska Foča 1+ goals

70%

Sutjeska Foča 2+ goals

34%

Sutjeska Foča 3+ goals

12%

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

75%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

40%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska Foča (draw refunded)

44%

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska Foča at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 96 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.64 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska Foča attack 1.78 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.21

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.79 + Sutjeska Foča defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sutjeska Foča scores more

33%

level

26%

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

41%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff