Krupa na Vrbasu 5–1 Sutjeska Foča: Result & Stats

Krupa na Vrbasu

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sutjeska Foča

10/8/2022

1st League - RS · RS - 12Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Krupa na Vrbasu79%

×Draw14%

Sutjeska Foča8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krupa na VrbasuExpected goals in this matchSutjeska Foča

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

0.74

Krupa na Vrbasu

2.73

Sutjeska Foča

0.74

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 269% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 96 away

3.41

creates per match

0.93

0.54

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Krupa na Vrbasu

3.41

Sutjeska Foča

0.93

allows per match

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.54

Sutjeska Foča

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Sutjeska Foča+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krupa na Vrbasu ↓

Sutjeska Foča →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Krupa na Vrbasu or draw

92%

Krupa na Vrbasu or Sutjeska Foča

86%

Draw or Sutjeska Foča

21%

Winning margin

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

58%

Sutjeska Foča wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

93%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

75%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

50%

Sutjeska Foča 1+ goals

52%

Sutjeska Foča 2+ goals

17%

Sutjeska Foča 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

91%

Sutjeska Foča (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krupa na Vrbasu at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.54 · 39 matches

Sutjeska Foča away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.04 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 3.41 + Sutjeska Foča defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.73

Sutjeska Foča attack 0.93 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

79%

level

14%

Sutjeska Foča scores more

8%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff