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Sutjeska Foča vs FK Romanija Pale — 1st League - RS 2019

Sutjeska Foča
Sutjeska Foča
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FK Romanija Pale
FK Romanija Pale
4/18/20261st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 25Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sutjeska Foča59%
×Draw23%
FK Romanija Pale18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutjeska Foča
1.81
FK Romanija Pale
0.89

Sutjeska Foča creates 103% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 49 away

creates per match

Sutjeska Foča
1.78
FK Romanija Pale
0.80

allows per match

Sutjeska Foča
0.98
FK Romanija Pale
1.84

finishing

Sutjeska Foča+0.00on par
FK Romanija Pale+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska Foča ↓

FK Romanija Pale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sutjeska Foča or draw
82%
Sutjeska Foča or FK Romanija Pale
77%
Draw or FK Romanija Pale
41%

Winning margin

Sutjeska Foča wins by 2+
34%
FK Romanija Pale wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sutjeska Foča 1+ goals
84%
Sutjeska Foča 2+ goals
54%
Sutjeska Foča 3+ goals
27%
FK Romanija Pale 1+ goals
59%
FK Romanija Pale 2+ goals
22%
FK Romanija Pale 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska Foča (draw refunded)
76%
FK Romanija Pale (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska Foča at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 96 matches

FK Romanija Pale away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.84 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska Foča attack 1.78 + FK Romanija Pale defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.81

FK Romanija Pale attack 0.80 + Sutjeska Foča defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sutjeska Foča scores more
59%
level
23%
FK Romanija Pale scores more
18%

Sutjeska Foča at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sutjeska Foča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sutjeska Foča vs FK Romanija Pale

FK Romanija Pale beat Sutjeska Foča 2-1 in 1st League - RS on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Foča.