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FK Romanija Pale vs Sutjeska Foča — 1st League - RS 2019

FK Romanija Pale
FK Romanija Pale
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sutjeska Foča
Sutjeska Foča
8/24/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 3Stadion FK Romanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

FK Romanija Pale55%
×Draw24%
Sutjeska Foča21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Romanija Pale
1.71
Sutjeska Foča
0.95

FK Romanija Pale creates 80% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 96 away

creates per match

FK Romanija Pale
1.37
Sutjeska Foča
0.93

allows per match

FK Romanija Pale
0.96
Sutjeska Foča
2.04

finishing

FK Romanija Pale+0.00on par
Sutjeska Foča+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Romanija Pale ↓

Sutjeska Foča →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FK Romanija Pale or draw
79%
FK Romanija Pale or Sutjeska Foča
76%
Draw or Sutjeska Foča
45%

Winning margin

FK Romanija Pale wins by 2+
30%
Sutjeska Foča wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FK Romanija Pale 1+ goals
82%
FK Romanija Pale 2+ goals
51%
FK Romanija Pale 3+ goals
24%
Sutjeska Foča 1+ goals
61%
Sutjeska Foča 2+ goals
25%
Sutjeska Foča 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Romanija Pale (draw refunded)
73%
Sutjeska Foča (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Romanija Pale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 49 matches

Sutjeska Foča away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.04 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Romanija Pale attack 1.37 + Sutjeska Foča defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sutjeska Foča attack 0.93 + FK Romanija Pale defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FK Romanija Pale scores more
55%
level
24%
Sutjeska Foča scores more
21%

FK Romanija Pale at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FK Romanija Pale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: FK Romanija Pale 2–1 Sutjeska Foča

FK Romanija Pale beat Sutjeska Foča 2-1 in 1st League - RS on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Romanija in Pale.