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Sutherland Sharks vs Marconi Stallions — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sutherland Sharks
Sutherland Sharks
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Marconi Stallions
Marconi Stallions
3/16/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 6Seymour Shaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Sutherland Sharks23%
×Draw25%
Marconi Stallions52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutherland Sharks
1.00
Marconi Stallions
1.63

Marconi Stallions creates 63% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 95 away

creates per match

Sutherland Sharks
1.00
Marconi Stallions
1.67

allows per match

Sutherland Sharks
1.59
Marconi Stallions
1.00

finishing

Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par
Marconi Stallions+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutherland Sharks ↓

Marconi Stallions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sutherland Sharks or draw
48%
Sutherland Sharks or Marconi Stallions
75%
Draw or Marconi Stallions
77%

Winning margin

Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+
8%
Marconi Stallions wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals
63%
Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals
26%
Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals
8%
Marconi Stallions 1+ goals
80%
Marconi Stallions 2+ goals
48%
Marconi Stallions 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)
31%
Marconi Stallions (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutherland Sharks at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 86 matches

Marconi Stallions away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.00 + Marconi Stallions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Marconi Stallions attack 1.67 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sutherland Sharks scores more
23%
level
25%
Marconi Stallions scores more
52%

Marconi Stallions at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Marconi Stallions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sutherland Sharks vs Marconi Stallions

Marconi Stallions beat Sutherland Sharks 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Seymour Shaw Park in Sydney.