Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Surnadal vs Strømsgodset II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Surnadal
Surnadal
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Strømsgodset II
Strømsgodset II
10/6/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 24Syltøran stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Surnadal48%
×Draw18%
Strømsgodset II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surnadal
2.77
Strømsgodset II
2.34

Surnadal creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Surnadal
2.31
Strømsgodset II
2.23

allows per match

Surnadal
2.46
Strømsgodset II
3.23

finishing

Surnadal+0.00on par
Strømsgodset II+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surnadal ↓

Strømsgodset II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Surnadal or draw
66%
Surnadal or Strømsgodset II
82%
Draw or Strømsgodset II
52%

Winning margin

Surnadal wins by 2+
30%
Strømsgodset II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Surnadal 1+ goals
94%
Surnadal 2+ goals
76%
Surnadal 3+ goals
51%
Strømsgodset II 1+ goals
90%
Strømsgodset II 2+ goals
67%
Strømsgodset II 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Surnadal (draw refunded)
59%
Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surnadal at home — creates 2.31, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Strømsgodset II away — creates 2.23, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surnadal attack 2.31 + Strømsgodset II defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.77

Strømsgodset II attack 2.23 + Surnadal defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Surnadal scores more
48%
level
18%
Strømsgodset II scores more
34%

Surnadal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Surnadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Surnadal vs Strømsgodset II

Surnadal beat Strømsgodset II 6-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Syltøran stadion in Surnadal.