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Strømsgodset II vs Surnadal — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Strømsgodset II
Strømsgodset II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Surnadal
Surnadal
4/21/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 3Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Strømsgodset II64%
×Draw17%
Surnadal19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strømsgodset II
2.73
Surnadal
1.43

Strømsgodset II creates 91% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Strømsgodset II
2.92
Surnadal
1.23

allows per match

Strømsgodset II
1.62
Surnadal
2.54

finishing

Strømsgodset II+0.00on par
Surnadal+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strømsgodset II ↓

Surnadal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Strømsgodset II or draw
81%
Strømsgodset II or Surnadal
83%
Draw or Surnadal
36%

Winning margin

Strømsgodset II wins by 2+
44%
Surnadal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Strømsgodset II 1+ goals
93%
Strømsgodset II 2+ goals
75%
Strømsgodset II 3+ goals
50%
Surnadal 1+ goals
76%
Surnadal 2+ goals
42%
Surnadal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)
78%
Surnadal (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strømsgodset II at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Surnadal away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strømsgodset II attack 2.92 + Surnadal defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.73

Surnadal attack 1.23 + Strømsgodset II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Strømsgodset II scores more
64%
level
17%
Surnadal scores more
19%

Strømsgodset II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Strømsgodset II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Strømsgodset II vs Surnadal

Strømsgodset II beat Surnadal 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.