Surnadal 2–2 Kvik Trondheim: Result & Stats

Surnadal

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Kvik Trondheim

7/5/2025

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 13Syltøran stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Surnadal34%

×Draw20%

Kvik Trondheim46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SurnadalExpected goals in this matchKvik Trondheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

2.31

Surnadal

1.98

Kvik Trondheim

2.31

Kvik Trondheim creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

2.00

creates per match

1.63

3.00

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Surnadal

2.00

Kvik Trondheim

1.63

allows per match

Surnadal

3.00

Kvik Trondheim

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surnadal+0.00on par

Kvik Trondheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surnadal ↓

Kvik Trondheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Surnadal or draw

54%

Surnadal or Kvik Trondheim

80%

Draw or Kvik Trondheim

66%

Winning margin

Surnadal wins by 2+

18%

Kvik Trondheim wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Surnadal 1+ goals

86%

Surnadal 2+ goals

59%

Surnadal 3+ goals

31%

Kvik Trondheim 1+ goals

90%

Kvik Trondheim 2+ goals

67%

Kvik Trondheim 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Surnadal (draw refunded)

43%

Kvik Trondheim (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surnadal at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

Kvik Trondheim away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surnadal attack 2.00 + Kvik Trondheim defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

Kvik Trondheim attack 1.63 + Surnadal defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Surnadal scores more

34%

level

20%

Kvik Trondheim scores more

46%

Kvik Trondheim at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kvik Trondheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff