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Kvik Trondheim vs Surnadal — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Kvik Trondheim
Kvik Trondheim
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Surnadal
Surnadal
8/30/20253. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 18Rosenborg Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kvik Trondheim67%
×Draw17%
Surnadal16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kvik Trondheim
2.75
Surnadal
1.29

Kvik Trondheim creates 113% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kvik Trondheim
1.65
Surnadal
0.69

allows per match

Kvik Trondheim
1.90
Surnadal
3.85

finishing

Kvik Trondheim+0.00on par
Surnadal+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Trondheim ↓

Surnadal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Kvik Trondheim or draw
84%
Kvik Trondheim or Surnadal
83%
Draw or Surnadal
33%

Winning margin

Kvik Trondheim wins by 2+
47%
Surnadal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kvik Trondheim 1+ goals
93%
Kvik Trondheim 2+ goals
75%
Kvik Trondheim 3+ goals
51%
Surnadal 1+ goals
72%
Surnadal 2+ goals
37%
Surnadal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kvik Trondheim (draw refunded)
81%
Surnadal (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Trondheim at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Surnadal away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Trondheim attack 1.65 + Surnadal defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 2.75

Surnadal attack 0.69 + Kvik Trondheim defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kvik Trondheim scores more
67%
level
17%
Surnadal scores more
16%

Kvik Trondheim at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kvik Trondheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kvik Trondheim vs Surnadal

Kvik Trondheim beat Surnadal 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Rosenborg Kunstgress in Trondheim.