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Surkhon vs Pakhtakor — Super League 2026

Surkhon
Surkhon
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
3/4/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Surkhon24%
×Draw26%
Pakhtakor50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surkhon
0.93
Pakhtakor
1.48

Pakhtakor creates 59% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 100 away

creates per match

Surkhon
0.99
Pakhtakor
1.85

allows per match

Surkhon
1.11
Pakhtakor
0.87

finishing

Surkhon+0.00on par
Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surkhon ↓

Pakhtakor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Surkhon or draw
50%
Surkhon or Pakhtakor
74%
Draw or Pakhtakor
76%

Winning margin

Surkhon wins by 2+
8%
Pakhtakor wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Surkhon 1+ goals
61%
Surkhon 2+ goals
24%
Surkhon 3+ goals
7%
Pakhtakor 1+ goals
77%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
43%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Surkhon (draw refunded)
32%
Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surkhon at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 99 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.87 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surkhon attack 0.99 + Pakhtakor defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.93

Pakhtakor attack 1.85 + Surkhon defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Surkhon scores more
24%
level
26%
Pakhtakor scores more
50%

Pakhtakor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Surkhon vs Pakhtakor

Pakhtakor beat Surkhon 3-0 in Super League on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion in Tashkent.