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Pakhtakor vs Surkhon — Super League 2026

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Surkhon
Surkhon
9/29/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23JAR Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Pakhtakor64%
×Draw21%
Surkhon15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
1.96
Surkhon
0.83

Pakhtakor creates 136% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 98 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
2.32
Surkhon
0.82

allows per match

Pakhtakor
0.84
Surkhon
1.60

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Surkhon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
85%
Pakhtakor or Surkhon
79%
Draw or Surkhon
36%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
39%
Surkhon wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
86%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
58%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
31%
Surkhon 1+ goals
56%
Surkhon 2+ goals
20%
Surkhon 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
81%
Surkhon (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.84 · 100 matches

Surkhon away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.60 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 2.32 + Surkhon defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.96

Surkhon attack 0.82 + Pakhtakor defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
64%
level
21%
Surkhon scores more
15%

Pakhtakor at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pakhtakor vs Surkhon

Pakhtakor beat Surkhon 1-0 in Super League on September 29, 2025.

The match was played at JAR Stadium in Tashkent.