Surkhon 1–1 Pakhtakor: Result & Stats

Surkhon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pakhtakor

Rubén Sánchez 2' (pen)

A. Fayzullaev 31'

10/9/2022

Super League · Round 21OKMK Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Surkhon24%

×Draw26%

Pakhtakor49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SurkhonExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.47

Surkhon

0.94

Pakhtakor

1.47

Pakhtakor creates 56% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 99 away

0.99

creates per match

1.85

1.09

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Surkhon

0.99

Pakhtakor

1.85

allows per match

Surkhon

1.09

Pakhtakor

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surkhon+0.00on par

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surkhon ↓

Pakhtakor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Surkhon or draw

51%

Surkhon or Pakhtakor

74%

Draw or Pakhtakor

76%

Winning margin

Surkhon wins by 2+

8%

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Surkhon 1+ goals

61%

Surkhon 2+ goals

24%

Surkhon 3+ goals

7%

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

77%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

43%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Surkhon (draw refunded)

33%

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surkhon at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 98 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.88 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surkhon attack 0.99 + Pakhtakor defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Pakhtakor attack 1.85 + Surkhon defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Surkhon scores more

24%

level

26%

Pakhtakor scores more

49%

Pakhtakor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Rubén SánchezPenalty

31'

A. Fayzullaev

46'

M. O'rinboyev← D. Khamdamov

60'

I. Malikjanov← N. Khasanov

60'

T. Shamshitdinov← U. Abdullayev

67'

J. Sokhibov← L. Quezada

68'

B. Shaydulov

72'

A. Turgunboev← D. Ćeran

87'

A. Yusupov← M. Bobojonov

87'

J. Akhmadov← K. Saidazimov

90'

S. Azmiddinov

Surkhon

Pakhtakor

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

60'▲I. Malikjanov←▼N. Khasanov

60'▲T. Shamshitdinov←▼U. Abdullayev

67'▲J. Sokhibov←▼L. Quezada

87'▲A. Yusupov←▼M. Bobojonov

87'▲J. Akhmadov←▼K. Saidazimov

Surkhon substitutes

MalikjanovShamshitdinovSokhibovYusupovAkhmadovTemirovMerganovShobirovDzhuraboev

Manager: M. Shatskikh

46'▲M. O'rinboyev←▼D. Khamdamov

72'▲A. Turgunboev←▼D. Ćeran

Pakhtakor substitutes

O'rinboyevTurgunboevAshurovAsqarovNe'matovKholmatovMartinovićBoymurodovO'ktamov