Surkhon 0–0 Olmaliq: Result & Stats | Super League

Surkhon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olmaliq

11/20/2025

Super League · Round 29Stadion Surkhon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Surkhon42%

×Draw29%

Olmaliq30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SurkhonExpected goals in this matchOlmaliq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.98

Surkhon

1.22

Olmaliq

0.98

Surkhon creates 24% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 27 away

1.14

creates per match

1.15

0.82

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Surkhon

1.14

Olmaliq

1.15

allows per match

Surkhon

0.82

Olmaliq

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surkhon+0.00on par

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surkhon ↓

Olmaliq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Surkhon or draw

70%

Surkhon or Olmaliq

71%

Draw or Olmaliq

58%

Winning margin

Surkhon wins by 2+

18%

Olmaliq wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Surkhon 1+ goals

70%

Surkhon 2+ goals

34%

Surkhon 3+ goals

12%

Olmaliq 1+ goals

62%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

26%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Surkhon (draw refunded)

58%

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surkhon at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

Olmaliq away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surkhon attack 1.14 + Olmaliq defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Olmaliq attack 1.15 + Surkhon defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Surkhon scores more

42%

level

29%

Olmaliq scores more

30%

Surkhon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Surkhon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

G. Papava

39'

B. Shamsiev

46'

A. Jumaev← A. Karimov

46'

B. Shaydulov← S. Poyonov

46'

B. Karimov← D. Tursunov

70'

S. Abdukhamidov← M. Abdurakhmonov

73'

A. Kholmurodov← A. Abdurakhmonov

73'

A. Sentoku← G. Papava

73'

A. Sobirzhonov← K. Giyosov

82'

D. Khodzhaniyazov

83'

N. Abdikholikov

85'

N. Senaga←

89'

D. Ramazonov← J. Juraev

90+1'

O. Rustamov

90+2'

A. Mukimzhonov← N. Abdurazzakov

Surkhon

Olmaliq

88

21

6

7

20

77

▼

Abdurazza

27

▼

Abdurakhm

15

Rustamov

10

▼

Giyosov

5

▼

11

16

5

6

4

22

▼

Juraev

99

▼

Poyonov

18

Abdikholi

77

▼

Karimov

7

▼

Tursunov

19

▼

Abdurakhm

10

Turdimuro

46'▲A. Jumaev←▼A. Karimov

46'▲B. Shaydulov←▼S. Poyonov

46'▲B. Karimov←▼D. Tursunov

70'▲S. Abdukhamidov←▼M. Abdurakhmonov

89'▲D. Ramazonov←▼J. Juraev

Surkhon substitutes

14Abdukhamidov15Ramazonov27Jumaev66Shaydulov86Merganov2Karimov24Komilov23Yusupov26Shukurullaev

73'▲A. Kholmurodov←▼A. Abdurakhmonov

73'▲A. Sentoku←▼G. Papava

73'▲A. Sobirzhonov←▼K. Giyosov

85'▲N. Senaga←▼—

90+2'▲A. Mukimzhonov←▼N. Abdurazzakov

Olmaliq substitutes

35Ilyosov13Begimov4Kosimov18Kholmurodov28Sentoku30Sarimsakov19Mukimzhonov16Senaga99Sobirzhonov

Match Recap: Surkhon vs Olmaliq

Surkhon and Olmaliq drew 0-0 in Super League on November 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Surkhon in Termez.

Surkhon vs Olmaliq — Super League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Surkhon vs Olmaliq