Olmaliq 0–1 Surkhon: Result & Stats | Super League

Olmaliq

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Surkhon

A. Jumaev 58'

6/30/2025

Super League · Round 14OKMK Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Olmaliq57%

×Draw25%

Surkhon17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlmaliqExpected goals in this matchSurkhon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.74

Olmaliq

1.58

Surkhon

0.74

Olmaliq creates 114% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

1.64

creates per match

0.67

0.82

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Olmaliq

1.64

Surkhon

0.67

allows per match

Olmaliq

0.82

Surkhon

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Surkhon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw

83%

Olmaliq or Surkhon

75%

Draw or Surkhon

43%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+

31%

Surkhon wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals

79%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

47%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

21%

Surkhon 1+ goals

52%

Surkhon 2+ goals

17%

Surkhon 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

77%

Surkhon (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.82 · 28 matches

Surkhon away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 1.64 + Surkhon defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Surkhon attack 0.67 + Olmaliq defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Olmaliq scores more

57%

level

25%

Surkhon scores more

17%

Olmaliq at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

J. Juraev

26'

D. Pletnev

49'

D. PletnevGoal Disallowed - offside

58'

A. Jumaev↳ D. Pletnev

63'

A. Kholmurodov← N. Abdurazzakov

63'

A. Karimov← A. Sarimsakov

63'

A. Sobirzhonov← M. Kosimov

67'

N. Abdikholikov← S. Komilov

67'

J. Abdusalomov← S. Poyonov

69'

A. Abdurakhmonov← A. Sentoku

74'

B. Shaydulov

79'

D. Kratkov← D. Tursunov

84'

N. Senaga← K. Giyosov

84'

B. Shamsiev← D. Pletnev

84'

A. Karimov← A. Jumaev

87'

G. Papava

90'

M. Abdurakhmonov

Olmaliq

Surkhon

16

66

5

4

22

10

A

▼

Pletnev

24

▼

Komilov

27

⚽

▼

Jumaev

7

▼

Tursunov

99

▼

19

35

2

7

5

15

30

▼

Sarimsako

10

▼

Giyosov

77

▼

Abdurazza

4

▼

Kosimov

28

▼

Sentoku

11

Sanchez

63'▲A. Kholmurodov←▼N. Abdurazzakov

63'▲A. Karimov←▼A. Sarimsakov

63'▲A. Sobirzhonov←▼M. Kosimov

69'▲A. Abdurakhmonov←▼A. Sentoku

84'▲N. Senaga←▼K. Giyosov

Olmaliq substitutes

1Sayyotov18Kholmurodov13Begimov16Senaga19Mukimzhonov27Abdurakhmonov44Karimov90Turdialiev99Sobirzhonov

67'▲N. Abdikholikov←▼S. Komilov

67'▲J. Abdusalomov←▼S. Poyonov

79'▲D. Kratkov←▼D. Tursunov

84'▲B. Shamsiev←▼D. Pletnev

84'▲A. Karimov←▼A. Jumaev

Surkhon substitutes

1Potapov6Shamsiev2Karimov21Mirkodirov18Abdikholikov77Karimov11Khaydarov88Kratkov17Abdusalomov