Surkhon 1–0 Navbahor: Result & Stats | Super League

Surkhon

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Navbahor

K. Kolesnichenko 87'

4/21/2025

Super League · Round 6Stadion Surkhon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Surkhon43%

×Draw28%

Navbahor29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SurkhonExpected goals in this matchNavbahor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.02

Surkhon

1.31

Navbahor

1.02

Surkhon creates 28% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

1.09

creates per match

1.21

0.83

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Surkhon

1.09

Navbahor

1.21

allows per match

Surkhon

0.83

Navbahor

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surkhon+0.00on par

Navbahor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surkhon ↓

Navbahor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Surkhon or draw

71%

Surkhon or Navbahor

72%

Draw or Navbahor

57%

Winning margin

Surkhon wins by 2+

20%

Navbahor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Surkhon 1+ goals

73%

Surkhon 2+ goals

38%

Surkhon 3+ goals

14%

Navbahor 1+ goals

64%

Navbahor 2+ goals

27%

Navbahor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Surkhon (draw refunded)

60%

Navbahor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surkhon at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Navbahor away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surkhon attack 1.09 + Navbahor defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Navbahor attack 1.21 + Surkhon defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Surkhon scores more

43%

level

28%

Navbahor scores more

29%

Surkhon at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Surkhon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

D. Khodzhaniyazov← N. Nematkhonov

46'

S. Komilov← A. Akhmedov

46'

Z. Urinboev← P. Kholdorkhonov

46'

A. Odilov← S. Ubaydullaev

59'

K. Kolesnichenko← S. Poyonov

59'

A. Khaydarov← M. Abdurakhmonov

64'

D. Kratkov← S. Komilov

70'

Guilherme Guedes

74'

Pedro← A. Gulomov

80'

D. Ramazonov← D. Pletnev

87'

K. Kolesnichenko↳ D. Ramazonov

90+3'

Higor Gabriel

Surkhon

Navbahor

16

Yuldashev

33

Karpovich

7

▼

99

36

12

13

70

▼

Gulomov

10

▼

Ubaydulla

11

▼

Kholdorkh

17

Jiyanov

1

Potapov

99

▼

Poyonov

4

▼

6

3

7

24

▼

Komilov

10

▼

Pletnev

66

Shaydulov

27

Jumaev

19

▼

Abdurakhm

46'▲D. Khodzhaniyazov←▼N. Nematkhonov

59'▲K. Kolesnichenko←▼S. Poyonov

59'▲A. Khaydarov←▼M. Abdurakhmonov

64'▲D. Kratkov←▼S. Komilov

80'▲D. Ramazonov←▼D. Pletnev

Surkhon substitutes

16Yuldoshev5Khodzhaniyazov9Kolesnichenko11Khaydarov15Ramazonov18Abdikholikov22Juraev77Karimov88Kratkov

46'▲S. Komilov←▼A. Akhmedov

46'▲Z. Urinboev←▼P. Kholdorkhonov

46'▲A. Odilov←▼S. Ubaydullaev

74'▲Pedro←▼A. Gulomov

Navbahor substitutes

1Ergashev4Toirov8Komilov9Urinboev21Islamov29Pedro37Odilov55Tozhidinov71Iminjonov