Navbahor 2–2 Surkhon: Result & Stats | Super League

Navbahor

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Surkhon

T. Tabatadze 90+5' (pen)

A. Akhmedov 49'

J. Abdusalomov 32'

S. Hamidjonov 23'

3/31/2024

Super League · Round 4Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Navbahor57%

×Draw26%

Surkhon17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NavbahorExpected goals in this matchSurkhon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.68

Navbahor

1.52

Surkhon

0.68

Navbahor creates 124% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

1.48

creates per match

0.73

0.62

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Navbahor

1.48

Surkhon

0.73

allows per match

Navbahor

0.62

Surkhon

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navbahor+0.00on par

Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navbahor ↓

Surkhon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Navbahor or draw

83%

Navbahor or Surkhon

74%

Draw or Surkhon

43%

Winning margin

Navbahor wins by 2+

30%

Surkhon wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Navbahor 1+ goals

78%

Navbahor 2+ goals

45%

Navbahor 3+ goals

20%

Surkhon 1+ goals

49%

Surkhon 2+ goals

15%

Surkhon 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Navbahor (draw refunded)

78%

Surkhon (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navbahor at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.62 · 21 matches

Surkhon away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navbahor attack 1.48 + Surkhon defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Surkhon attack 0.73 + Navbahor defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Navbahor scores more

57%

level

26%

Surkhon scores more

17%

Navbahor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Karimov← U. Khoshimov

15'

N. Nematkhonov

23'

S. Hamidjonov

32'

J. Abdusalomov

33'

A. Sobirjonov← S. Haghnazari

49'

A. Akhmedov

65'

K. Saidazimov← D. Pletnev

65'

S. Mahmudov← D. Tursunov

79'

A. Ismailov← J. Iskanderov

81'

A. Jumayev← M. Abdurahmonov

90'

S. Shodiboev← R. Jiyanov

90+5'

T. TabatadzePenalty

Navbahor

Surkhon

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Babayan

33'▲A. Sobirjonov←▼S. Haghnazari

79'▲A. Ismailov←▼J. Iskanderov

90'▲S. Shodiboev←▼R. Jiyanov

Navbahor substitutes

SobirjonovIsmailovShodiboevLobanovAbdulhayevNikabadzeYoldoshevIminjonovO'ktamov

Manager: F. Davletov

9'▲A. Karimov←▼U. Khoshimov

65'▲K. Saidazimov←▼D. Pletnev

65'▲S. Mahmudov←▼D. Tursunov

81'▲A. Jumayev←▼M. Abdurahmonov

Surkhon substitutes

KarimovSaidazimovMahmudovJumayevAmirqulovPirmuhamedovMerganovAbduhamidovMuhiddinov