Surkhon 1–1 Navbahor: Result & Stats | Super League

Surkhon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Navbahor

S. Karimov 60'

A. Gafurov 64' (OG)

8/19/2020

Super League · Round 10TTYMI Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Surkhon33%

×Draw29%

Navbahor38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SurkhonExpected goals in this matchNavbahor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.14

Surkhon

1.04

Navbahor

1.14

Navbahor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 99 away

0.99

creates per match

1.19

1.09

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Surkhon

0.99

Navbahor

1.19

allows per match

Surkhon

1.09

Navbahor

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surkhon+0.00on par

Navbahor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surkhon ↓

Navbahor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Surkhon or draw

62%

Surkhon or Navbahor

71%

Draw or Navbahor

67%

Winning margin

Surkhon wins by 2+

13%

Navbahor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Surkhon 1+ goals

65%

Surkhon 2+ goals

28%

Surkhon 3+ goals

9%

Navbahor 1+ goals

68%

Navbahor 2+ goals

32%

Navbahor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Surkhon (draw refunded)

46%

Navbahor (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surkhon at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 98 matches

Navbahor away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.08 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surkhon attack 0.99 + Navbahor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Navbahor attack 1.19 + Surkhon defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Surkhon scores more

33%

level

29%

Navbahor scores more

38%

Navbahor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

R. Bolov

17'

J. Mehmonov

34'

A. Gafurov

46'

I. Isoqjonov← R. Bolov

60'

S. Karimov

64'

A. GafurovOwn goal

75'

78'

79'

81'

81'

S. Mahmudxojiyev← A. Gulomov

83'

S. Sulaymonov← S. Karimov

87'

N. Khasanov← S. Salomov

Surkhon

Navbahor

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: S. Abdukhujayev

83'▲S. Sulaymonov←▼S. Karimov

87'▲N. Khasanov←▼S. Salomov

Surkhon substitutes

SulaymonovKhasanovOmonovDjabbarovStanojevićNomozovBerdimurodovSoliyevAhmedov

Manager: A. Kanchelskis

46'▲I. Isoqjonov←▼R. Bolov

81'▲S. Mahmudxojiyev←▼A. Gulomov

Navbahor substitutes

IsoqjonovMahmudxojiyevKomilovIbrokhimovGolyshevTelyakovShamsiddinovAbdullakhonov

Match Recap: Surkhon vs Navbahor

Surkhon and Navbahor drew 1-1 in Super League on August 19, 2020.

Goals: S. Karimov (60'), A. Gafurov (64' o.g.).

The match was played at TTYMI Stadioni in Tashkent.

Surkhon vs Navbahor — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Surkhon vs Navbahor