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Surkhon vs Andijan — Super League 2019

Surkhon
Surkhon
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Andijan
Andijan
10/27/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Stadion Surkhon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Surkhon42%
×Draw28%
Andijan30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surkhon
1.27
Andijan
1.02

Surkhon creates 25% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 87 away

creates per match

Surkhon
0.99
Andijan
0.94

allows per match

Surkhon
1.11
Andijan
1.56

finishing

Surkhon+0.00on par
Andijan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surkhon ↓

Andijan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Surkhon or draw
70%
Surkhon or Andijan
72%
Draw or Andijan
58%

Winning margin

Surkhon wins by 2+
19%
Andijan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Surkhon 1+ goals
72%
Surkhon 2+ goals
36%
Surkhon 3+ goals
14%
Andijan 1+ goals
64%
Andijan 2+ goals
27%
Andijan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Surkhon (draw refunded)
59%
Andijan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surkhon at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 99 matches

Andijan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.56 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surkhon attack 0.99 + Andijan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Andijan attack 0.94 + Surkhon defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Surkhon scores more
42%
level
28%
Andijan scores more
30%

Surkhon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Surkhon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Surkhon vs Andijan

Surkhon beat Andijan 4-0 in Super League on October 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Surkhon in Termez.