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Andijan vs Surkhon — Super League 2019

Andijan
Andijan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Surkhon
Surkhon
5/23/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Bobur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Andijan45%
×Draw27%
Surkhon28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andijan
1.38
Surkhon
1.02

Andijan creates 35% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 98 away

creates per match

Andijan
1.16
Surkhon
0.82

allows per match

Andijan
1.22
Surkhon
1.60

finishing

Andijan+0.00on par
Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andijan ↓

Surkhon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Andijan or draw
72%
Andijan or Surkhon
73%
Draw or Surkhon
55%

Winning margin

Andijan wins by 2+
21%
Surkhon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Andijan 1+ goals
75%
Andijan 2+ goals
40%
Andijan 3+ goals
16%
Surkhon 1+ goals
64%
Surkhon 2+ goals
27%
Surkhon 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Andijan (draw refunded)
62%
Surkhon (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andijan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.22 · 86 matches

Surkhon away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.60 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andijan attack 1.16 + Surkhon defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Surkhon attack 0.82 + Andijan defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Andijan scores more
45%
level
27%
Surkhon scores more
28%

Andijan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Andijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andijan vs Surkhon

Andijan beat Surkhon 2-1 in Super League on May 23, 2025.

The match was played at Bobur Arena in Andijan.