Surfers Paradise Apollo 3–1 SC Wanderers

Surfers Paradise Apollo

FT

3 – 1

SC Wanderers

6/17/2023

Queensland Premier League · Round 14Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo58%

×Draw20%

SC Wanderers22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Surfers Paradise ApolloExpected goals in this matchSC Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.33

Surfers Paradise Apollo

2.27

SC Wanderers

1.33

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 71% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 40 away

2.92

creates per match

1.50

1.17

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo

2.92

SC Wanderers

1.50

allows per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo

1.17

SC Wanderers

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par

SC Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surfers Paradise Apollo ↓

SC Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Surfers Paradise Apollo or draw

78%

Surfers Paradise Apollo or SC Wanderers

80%

Draw or SC Wanderers

42%

Winning margin

Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+

36%

SC Wanderers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals

90%

Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals

66%

Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals

39%

SC Wanderers 1+ goals

74%

SC Wanderers 2+ goals

38%

SC Wanderers 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)

73%

SC Wanderers (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surfers Paradise Apollo at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

SC Wanderers away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.92 + SC Wanderers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.27

SC Wanderers attack 1.50 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more

58%

level

20%

SC Wanderers scores more

22%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff