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SC Wanderers vs Surfers Paradise Apollo — Queensland Premier League 2026

SC Wanderers
SC Wanderers
FT
0 – 2
Surfers Paradise Apollo
Surfers Paradise Apollo
4/16/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 3Kawana Sports Western Precinct 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SC Wanderers21%
×Draw20%
Surfers Paradise Apollo58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Wanderers
1.27
Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.21

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 74% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 11 away

creates per match

SC Wanderers
1.63
Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.55

allows per match

SC Wanderers
1.88
Surfers Paradise Apollo
0.91

finishing

SC Wanderers+0.00on par
Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Wanderers ↓

Surfers Paradise Apollo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

SC Wanderers or draw
42%
SC Wanderers or Surfers Paradise Apollo
80%
Draw or Surfers Paradise Apollo
79%

Winning margin

SC Wanderers wins by 2+
9%
Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

SC Wanderers 1+ goals
72%
SC Wanderers 2+ goals
36%
SC Wanderers 3+ goals
14%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals
89%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals
65%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

SC Wanderers (draw refunded)
27%
Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Wanderers at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.88 · 40 matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo away — creates 2.55, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Wanderers attack 1.63 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.27

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.55 + SC Wanderers defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

SC Wanderers scores more
21%
level
20%
Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more
58%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Wanderers vs Surfers Paradise Apollo

Surfers Paradise Apollo beat SC Wanderers 2-0 in Queensland Premier League on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Kawana Sports Western Precinct 2 in Kawana Waters.