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Surfers Paradise Apollo vs Mitchelton — Queensland Premier League 2026

Surfers Paradise Apollo
Surfers Paradise Apollo
FT
7 – 0
Mitchelton
Mitchelton
7/30/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 19Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo69%
×Draw16%
Mitchelton15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.79
Mitchelton
1.25

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 123% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 43 away

creates per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.92
Mitchelton
1.33

allows per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo
1.17
Mitchelton
2.67

finishing

Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par
Mitchelton+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surfers Paradise Apollo ↓

Mitchelton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Surfers Paradise Apollo or draw
85%
Surfers Paradise Apollo or Mitchelton
84%
Draw or Mitchelton
31%

Winning margin

Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+
48%
Mitchelton wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals
94%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals
76%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals
52%
Mitchelton 1+ goals
71%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
36%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)
82%
Mitchelton (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surfers Paradise Apollo at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Mitchelton away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.92 + Mitchelton defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.79

Mitchelton attack 1.33 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more
69%
level
16%
Mitchelton scores more
15%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Surfers Paradise Apollo 7–0 Mitchelton

Surfers Paradise Apollo beat Mitchelton 7-0 in Queensland Premier League on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 2 in Gold Coast.