Mitchelton 0–4 Surfers Paradise Apollo

Mitchelton

FT

0 – 4

Surfers Paradise Apollo

4/29/2023

Queensland Premier League · Round 8Teralba Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Mitchelton18%

×Draw18%

Surfers Paradise Apollo64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MitcheltonExpected goals in this matchSurfers Paradise Apollo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

2.57

Mitchelton

1.32

Surfers Paradise Apollo

2.57

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 11 away

1.73

creates per match

2.55

2.59

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Mitchelton

1.73

Surfers Paradise Apollo

2.55

allows per match

Mitchelton

2.59

Surfers Paradise Apollo

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par

Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

Surfers Paradise Apollo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw

36%

Mitchelton or Surfers Paradise Apollo

82%

Draw or Surfers Paradise Apollo

82%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+

7%

Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals

73%

Mitchelton 2+ goals

38%

Mitchelton 3+ goals

15%

Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals

92%

Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals

72%

Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)

22%

Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.59 · 41 matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo away — creates 2.55, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 1.73 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.32

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.55 + Mitchelton defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mitchelton scores more

18%

level

18%

Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more

64%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff