Surfers Paradise Apollo 4–0 Capalaba

Surfers Paradise Apollo

FT

4 – 0

Capalaba

4/9/2023

Queensland Premier League · Round 6Lex Bell Oval Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo61%

×Draw18%

Capalaba21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Surfers Paradise ApolloExpected goals in this matchCapalaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

1.46

Surfers Paradise Apollo

2.59

Capalaba

1.46

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 77% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 42 away

2.92

creates per match

1.74

1.17

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo

2.92

Capalaba

1.74

allows per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo

1.17

Capalaba

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par

Capalaba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surfers Paradise Apollo ↓

Capalaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Surfers Paradise Apollo or draw

79%

Surfers Paradise Apollo or Capalaba

82%

Draw or Capalaba

39%

Winning margin

Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+

40%

Capalaba wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals

92%

Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals

73%

Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals

47%

Capalaba 1+ goals

77%

Capalaba 2+ goals

43%

Capalaba 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)

75%

Capalaba (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surfers Paradise Apollo at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Capalaba away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.92 + Capalaba defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.59

Capalaba attack 1.74 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more

61%

level

18%

Capalaba scores more

21%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Surfers Paradise Apollo vs Capalaba

Surfers Paradise Apollo beat Capalaba 4-0 in Queensland Premier League on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Lex Bell Oval Field 1 in Isle of Capri, Surfers Paradise.

Surfers Paradise Apollo vs Capalaba — Queensland Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Surfers Paradise Apollo vs Capalaba