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Capalaba vs Surfers Paradise Apollo — Queensland Premier League 2026

Capalaba
Capalaba
FT
0 – 0
Surfers Paradise Apollo
Surfers Paradise Apollo
7/15/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 17Max Haynes Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Capalaba15%
×Draw17%
Surfers Paradise Apollo67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capalaba
1.16
Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.58

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 122% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 11 away

creates per match

Capalaba
1.40
Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.55

allows per match

Capalaba
2.62
Surfers Paradise Apollo
0.91

finishing

Capalaba+0.00on par
Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capalaba ↓

Surfers Paradise Apollo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Capalaba or draw
33%
Capalaba or Surfers Paradise Apollo
83%
Draw or Surfers Paradise Apollo
85%

Winning margin

Capalaba wins by 2+
6%
Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Capalaba 1+ goals
69%
Capalaba 2+ goals
32%
Capalaba 3+ goals
11%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals
92%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals
72%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Capalaba (draw refunded)
19%
Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capalaba at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.62 · 42 matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo away — creates 2.55, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capalaba attack 1.40 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.16

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.55 + Capalaba defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Capalaba scores more
15%
level
17%
Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more
67%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Capalaba 0–0 Surfers Paradise Apollo

Capalaba and Surfers Paradise Apollo drew 0-0 in Queensland Premier League on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Max Haynes Field in Redland.