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Surfers Paradise Apollo vs Caboolture — Queensland Premier League 2026

Surfers Paradise Apollo
Surfers Paradise Apollo
FT
4 – 0
Caboolture
Caboolture
5/7/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 9Lex Bell Oval Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo58%
×Draw19%
Caboolture23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.49
Caboolture
1.53

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 63% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 50 away

creates per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.92
Caboolture
1.90

allows per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo
1.17
Caboolture
2.06

finishing

Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par
Caboolture+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surfers Paradise Apollo ↓

Caboolture →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Surfers Paradise Apollo or draw
77%
Surfers Paradise Apollo or Caboolture
81%
Draw or Caboolture
42%

Winning margin

Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+
37%
Caboolture wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals
92%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals
71%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals
45%
Caboolture 1+ goals
78%
Caboolture 2+ goals
45%
Caboolture 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)
72%
Caboolture (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surfers Paradise Apollo at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Caboolture away — creates 1.90, concedes 2.06 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.92 + Caboolture defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.49

Caboolture attack 1.90 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more
58%
level
19%
Caboolture scores more
23%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Surfers Paradise Apollo vs Caboolture

Surfers Paradise Apollo beat Caboolture 4-0 in Queensland Premier League on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Lex Bell Oval Field 1 in Isle of Capri, Surfers Paradise.