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Caboolture vs Surfers Paradise Apollo — Queensland Premier League 2026

Caboolture
Caboolture
FT
1 – 4
Surfers Paradise Apollo
Surfers Paradise Apollo
8/13/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 20Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Caboolture23%
×Draw19%
Surfers Paradise Apollo58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caboolture
1.45
Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.38

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 64% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 11 away

creates per match

Caboolture
1.98
Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.55

allows per match

Caboolture
2.22
Surfers Paradise Apollo
0.91

finishing

Caboolture+0.00on par
Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caboolture ↓

Surfers Paradise Apollo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Caboolture or draw
42%
Caboolture or Surfers Paradise Apollo
81%
Draw or Surfers Paradise Apollo
77%

Winning margin

Caboolture wins by 2+
10%
Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Caboolture 1+ goals
77%
Caboolture 2+ goals
42%
Caboolture 3+ goals
18%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals
91%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals
68%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Caboolture (draw refunded)
28%
Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caboolture at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.22 · 54 matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo away — creates 2.55, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caboolture attack 1.98 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.45

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.55 + Caboolture defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Caboolture scores more
23%
level
19%
Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more
58%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caboolture vs Surfers Paradise Apollo

Surfers Paradise Apollo beat Caboolture 4-1 in Queensland Premier League on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1 in Burpengary.