Surfers Paradise Apollo 2–0 Albany Creek

Surfers Paradise Apollo

FT

2 – 0

Albany Creek

5/20/2023

Queensland Premier League · Round 11Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo58%

×Draw21%

Albany Creek21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Surfers Paradise ApolloExpected goals in this matchAlbany Creek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.22

Surfers Paradise Apollo

2.14

Albany Creek

1.22

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 75% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

2.92

creates per match

1.27

1.17

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo

2.92

Albany Creek

1.27

allows per match

Surfers Paradise Apollo

1.17

Albany Creek

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par

Albany Creek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surfers Paradise Apollo ↓

Albany Creek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Surfers Paradise Apollo or draw

79%

Surfers Paradise Apollo or Albany Creek

79%

Draw or Albany Creek

42%

Winning margin

Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+

36%

Albany Creek wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals

88%

Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals

63%

Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals

36%

Albany Creek 1+ goals

70%

Albany Creek 2+ goals

34%

Albany Creek 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)

73%

Albany Creek (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surfers Paradise Apollo at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Albany Creek away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.92 + Albany Creek defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.14

Albany Creek attack 1.27 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more

58%

level

21%

Albany Creek scores more

21%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff