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Albany Creek vs Surfers Paradise Apollo — Queensland Premier League 2026

Albany Creek
Albany Creek
FT
0 – 3
Surfers Paradise Apollo
Surfers Paradise Apollo
8/26/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 22Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Albany Creek22%
×Draw21%
Surfers Paradise Apollo57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albany Creek
1.27
Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.14

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 69% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Albany Creek
1.64
Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.55

allows per match

Albany Creek
1.73
Surfers Paradise Apollo
0.91

finishing

Albany Creek+0.00on par
Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albany Creek ↓

Surfers Paradise Apollo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Albany Creek or draw
43%
Albany Creek or Surfers Paradise Apollo
79%
Draw or Surfers Paradise Apollo
78%

Winning margin

Albany Creek wins by 2+
9%
Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Albany Creek 1+ goals
72%
Albany Creek 2+ goals
36%
Albany Creek 3+ goals
14%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals
88%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals
63%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Albany Creek (draw refunded)
28%
Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albany Creek at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo away — creates 2.55, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albany Creek attack 1.64 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.27

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.55 + Albany Creek defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Albany Creek scores more
22%
level
21%
Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more
57%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albany Creek vs Surfers Paradise Apollo

Surfers Paradise Apollo beat Albany Creek 3-0 in Queensland Premier League on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Wolter Park in Brisbane.