Suphanburi 1–1 Raj Pracha: Result & Stats

Suphanburi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Raj Pracha

2/12/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 23Suphanburi Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Suphanburi47%

×Draw27%

Raj Pracha26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SuphanburiExpected goals in this matchRaj Pracha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.98

Suphanburi

1.43

Raj Pracha

0.98

Suphanburi creates 46% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.45

creates per match

0.68

1.27

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Suphanburi

1.45

Raj Pracha

0.68

allows per match

Suphanburi

1.27

Raj Pracha

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suphanburi+0.00on par

Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suphanburi ↓

Raj Pracha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Suphanburi or draw

74%

Suphanburi or Raj Pracha

73%

Draw or Raj Pracha

53%

Winning margin

Suphanburi wins by 2+

23%

Raj Pracha wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Suphanburi 1+ goals

76%

Suphanburi 2+ goals

42%

Suphanburi 3+ goals

17%

Raj Pracha 1+ goals

62%

Raj Pracha 2+ goals

26%

Raj Pracha 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Suphanburi (draw refunded)

65%

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suphanburi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suphanburi attack 1.45 + Raj Pracha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.43

Raj Pracha attack 0.68 + Suphanburi defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Suphanburi scores more

47%

level

27%

Raj Pracha scores more

26%

Suphanburi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Suphanburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff