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Raj Pracha vs Suphanburi — Thai League 2 2018

Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Suphanburi
Suphanburi
10/1/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 7Nonthaburi Provincial Stadium‎

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raj Pracha48%
×Draw27%
Suphanburi25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raj Pracha
1.44
Suphanburi
0.97

Raj Pracha creates 48% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

creates per match

Raj Pracha
1.18
Suphanburi
0.85

allows per match

Raj Pracha
1.09
Suphanburi
1.71

finishing

Raj Pracha+0.00on par
Suphanburi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raj Pracha ↓

Suphanburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Raj Pracha or draw
75%
Raj Pracha or Suphanburi
73%
Draw or Suphanburi
52%

Winning margin

Raj Pracha wins by 2+
24%
Suphanburi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Raj Pracha 1+ goals
76%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
42%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
18%
Suphanburi 1+ goals
62%
Suphanburi 2+ goals
25%
Suphanburi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
65%
Suphanburi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raj Pracha at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Suphanburi away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raj Pracha attack 1.18 + Suphanburi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Suphanburi attack 0.85 + Raj Pracha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Raj Pracha scores more
48%
level
27%
Suphanburi scores more
25%

Raj Pracha at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Raj Pracha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raj Pracha vs Suphanburi

Raj Pracha beat Suphanburi 1-0 in Thai League 2 on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Nonthaburi Provincial Stadium‎ in Nonthaburi.