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Suphanburi vs Chonburi FC — Thai League 2 2018

Suphanburi
Suphanburi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chonburi FC
Chonburi FC
4/26/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 34Suphanburi Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Suphanburi36%
×Draw27%
Chonburi FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suphanburi
1.23
Chonburi FC
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 16 away

creates per match

Suphanburi
1.45
Chonburi FC
1.19

allows per match

Suphanburi
1.27
Chonburi FC
1.00

finishing

Suphanburi+0.00on par
Chonburi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suphanburi ↓

Chonburi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Suphanburi or draw
64%
Suphanburi or Chonburi FC
73%
Draw or Chonburi FC
64%

Winning margin

Suphanburi wins by 2+
16%
Chonburi FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Suphanburi 1+ goals
71%
Suphanburi 2+ goals
35%
Suphanburi 3+ goals
13%
Chonburi FC 1+ goals
71%
Chonburi FC 2+ goals
35%
Chonburi FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Suphanburi (draw refunded)
50%
Chonburi FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suphanburi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Chonburi FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suphanburi attack 1.45 + Chonburi FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chonburi FC attack 1.19 + Suphanburi defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Suphanburi scores more
36%
level
27%
Chonburi FC scores more
36%

Suphanburi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Suphanburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Suphanburi 0–1 Chonburi FC

Chonburi FC beat Suphanburi 1-0 in Thai League 2 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium in Suphanburi.